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the cost of "winning"

Juan Cole comments on the WHO study which found the war in Iraq has cost an excess of 151,000 violent deaths over what one would expect without the American action. As horrible as this is, the study admits it did not take into account the most violent areas, because it was too dangerous to go there. This would make the estimate appear to be on the low side.

This finding is in contrast to the Lancet study which estimated Iraqi deaths at approximately 600,000. In contrast, the Lancet study did go into the most dangerous areas, and from what I have read from people who understand statistical rigor and reporting methods, there is every reason to believe the Lancet study is in fact the most accurate information we have, however repugnant that figure may be.

As Juan Cole notes, though, even the lower figure is horrendous (and does not take into account the estimated 2 to 4 million Iraqi refugees the war has caused). He ends his piece as follows: “Bush has gutted American civil liberties, and turned us into a hateful nation of spies, torturers, bigots, and colonialists occupying someone else's country…. And he has managed to unleash a maelstrom of violence in the Middle East that has wiped out the population of a medium-sized city. Surveying civilian deaths in Iraq is like walking through Lincoln, Nebraska, after it was hit by a neutron bomb, with everyone dead. Everyone.”

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Comments

FWIW, it occurs to me that the title of this post might be taken to mean that although we have won in Iraq, it's a hollow victory or something like that.

That is not the case. What I do think, based on the analysis of people who actually know about the Middle East, is that we have bought (literally, mostly through arms sales to Sunni groups) a respite from the violence. Meanwhile, the differences between the various factions become ever more rigid and the Maliki government--seen as a U.S. puppet, gee I wonder why?--is powerless to bring them together. When violence breaks out again, all sides will be that much more heavily armed. 2008 is likely to be an even more savage year than last in Iraq, from what I have read.

Nothing could make me happier than to be proved wrong on this. But if you pit several thousand years of Mideast history vs. a politicized American military and vacuous press, I'm afraid I know which to bet on.

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