terrorism index
Six months ago, Foreign Policy magazine and the Center For American Progress surveyed the top 100 foreign policy experts to create a Terrorism Index. In creating the survey, they worked to eliminate political bias as much as possible. No one currently working for the government was polled (if it’s part of your job description, you can’t help but be biased); the answers of those who self-identified as conservative were mathematically weighted to balance a statistical preponderance of liberals (probably because many of the conservatives who would otherwise be polled are currently in the government).
It was a really interesting story, something I really wanted to blog about at the time but never got around to. As it happens, there is a new Terrorism Index out now, and it’s just as interesting as the first. For one thing, on many issues there is broad agreement between the experts, no matter where they fall on the ideological spectrum. I should mention these 100 people aren’t just guys off the street—participants include former secretaries of state, national intelligence advisors, White House aides, top military commanders, academics, and journalists.
Here are a few of the poll results:
- 81% see the world is growing more dangerous for the American people; 75% say we are losing the war on terror. The good news is those numbers are down slightly from six months ago.
- 87% say that America’s public diplomacy is failing, due to poor leadership and ineffective policies. There does seem to be some optimism about the new Secretary of Defense and CIA chief.
- The worst news, not surprisingly, is Iraq: 92% rated the Bush Administration’s performance as below average. In fact, 60%, of all political persuasions, said the administration is doing the “worst possible” job in Iraq. Worse, they feel Iraq is distracting us from more dangerous threats coming down the road, most notably North Korea.
- As far as troop increases go, only about a third went along with increasing US forces in Iraq, while 70% said our troop levels in Afghanistan should be increased. 88% of the experts believe the war in Iraq is undermining American security, but nearly two out of three support the war in Afghanistan—though our position there is faltering fast.
The poll is fascinating (3D graphs and everything!), but the best thing is to keep your ears open to news outlets such as NPR for interviews with the people behind the Terrorism Index. That is how I first learned about it last summer. These interviews can bring the poll to life in ways that dry statistics can only hint at. And it is vitally important news.